Very early warning of a moderate-to-strong El Niño in 2023
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of year-to-year variations of the global climate and can lead to extreme weather conditions and disasters in various regions around the world. For 2023 Joseph Ludescher et. al 2023 predict an increase of the global temperature by about +0.2°C, likely making 2024 the hottest year since the beginning of instrumental observations. It is possible that as a consequence of this the +1.5°C target will be temporarily breached already in 2024.
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